Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: CARLOS AMILCAR SALGADO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : CARLOS AMILCAR SALGADO
DATE: 29/04/2026
TIME: 14:30
LOCAL: meet.google.com/pfr-geto-ekw
TITLE:

Impact of a National Financial Incentive Program on Elective Surgery Volumes in the Brazilian Public Health System: A Nationwide Time-Series Causal Impact Study

KEY WORDS:

Elective Surgical Procedures; Waiting Lists; Health Care Financing; Universal Health Insurance; National Health Programs

PAGES: 100
BIG AREA: Ciências da Saúde
AREA: Saúde Coletiva
SUMMARY:

“Introduction: Long waiting times for elective surgery are a persistent problem in publicly funded health systems and worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. In February 2023, Brazil introduced a national financial incentive program to increase elective surgery within the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS). We evaluated its impact on elective surgery volume. This study aimed to assess the impact of the national financial incentive program, implemented in February 2023, on elective surgery volumes in the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS), estimating the average and cumulative effects on incentivized procedures using causal impact analysis in time-series data. Methods We conducted a time-series study using the Hospital Information System of SUS (SIH/DATASUS) that included all elective surgical admissions from July 2, 2017, to December 21, 2024. Procedures were classified as incentivized or non-incentivized in accordance with federal funding rules. Bayesian structural time-series models with causal impact analysis were used to estimate counterfactual trajectories in the absence of the financial incentive program. Outcomes were the average and cumulative effects on incentivized elective surgeries. Results: During the COVID-19 period, incentivized elective surgeries fell sharply, resulting in a significant cumulative deficit relative to the counterfactual. After February 2023, the financial incentive program, adjusted for elective surgeries that did not receive financial incentives, was associated with an increase in incentivized surgeries. The average absolute effect was 10,552 additional procedures per week (95% confidence interval [CI] 4,976–14,962), and the cumulative gain reached 864,433 surgeries (95% CI 427,9421,286,730) over the post-intervention period. Overall, the cumulative gain attributable to the program exceeded the estimated deficit generated during the COVID-19 period. Conclusion: The Brazilian financial incentive program was associated with an expansion of incentivized elective surgeries, with model estimates suggesting that the cumulative gain may have offset the loss observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted financial incentives may be a valuable component of strategies to recover and expand elective surgical capacity in universal health systems.”

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - BRUNO DO VALLE PINHEIRO - UFJF
Externo à Instituição - Dilson Palhares Ferreira - SESDF
Presidente - ***.645.631-** - FABIO FERREIRA AMORIM - ESCS
Interno - ***.580.591-** - FRANCISCO DE ASSIS ROCHA NEVES - UNIFESP
Externo à Instituição - JORGE LUIS DOS SANTOS VALIATTI